Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +16.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Tavares wins 59.5% vs left-shot opponents — Carlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.7% vs Carlsson 42.4% (+16.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 93.0%
Defensive zone
Tavares 91.0%
Neutral zone
Tavares 91.6%
Result
John Tavares favored at 91.6%
91.6%
8.4%
Tavares
Carlsson
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
0
(6 meetings)
6
0
Tavares
Carlsson
Last 6: Tavares 6-0 Carlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Carlsson
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
0
Tavares
Carlsson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
0
Tavares
Carlsson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Carlsson
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (998)
41.8% (648)
+15.9%
Power Play
60.5% (271)
37.3% (51)
+23.2%
Penalty Kill
56.4% (39)
38.7% (31)
+17.7%
On power play, Tavares has a +23.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carlsson shoots left. Tavares is 59.5% vs left-shot opponents (818).
Tavares shoots left. Carlsson is 41.3% vs left-shot opponents (545).
Home / Away
Tavares
Carlsson
Home
59.7% (610)
44.5% (362)
Away
57.0% (698)
38.3% (368)
By Period
Tavares
Carlsson
P1
57.2%
46.3%
P2
58.5%
35.1%
P3
59.4%
43.9%
OT
46.7%
33.3%
Final 5 min
57.0%
43.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
58.3%
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
41.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2025 | 3 | 18:54 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 30, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 30, 2025 | 2 | 13:01 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 30, 2025 | 2 | 02:19 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 30, 2025 | 1 | 10:33 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 2 | 00:59 | Neutral | John Tavares |