Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +17.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Stenlund on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Stenlund wins 61.8% vs left-shot opponents — Carlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stenlund 58.3% vs Carlsson 42.4% (+17.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stenlund 84.6%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 97.1%
Neutral zone
Stenlund 95.1%
Result
Kevin Stenlund favored at 94.0%
94.0%
6.0%
Stenlund
Carlsson
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
1
(8 meetings)
7
1
Stenlund
Carlsson
Last 8: Stenlund 7-1 Carlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
2
0
Stenlund
Carlsson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
5
1
Stenlund
Carlsson
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stenlund
Carlsson
Edge
Even Strength
58.6% (797)
41.8% (648)
+16.8%
Power Play
62.5% (24)
37.3% (51)
+25.2%
Penalty Kill
60.5% (233)
38.7% (31)
+21.8%
On power play, Stenlund has a +25.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carlsson shoots left. Stenlund is 61.8% vs left-shot opponents (845).
Stenlund shoots right. Carlsson is 41.6% vs right-shot opponents (185).
Home / Away
Stenlund
Carlsson
Home
58.6% (548)
44.5% (362)
Away
59.7% (506)
38.3% (368)
By Period
Stenlund
Carlsson
P1
60.2%
46.3%
P2
59.1%
35.1%
P3
58.3%
43.9%
OT
58.6%
33.3%
Final 5 min
58.8%
43.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stenlund
52.0%▼
59.0%
59.1%
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
41.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2025 | 3 | 09:50 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 12, 2025 | 3 | 04:39 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 12, 2025 | 1 | 19:59 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 12, 2025 | 1 | 19:44 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 12, 2025 | 1 | 11:39 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 12, 2025 | 1 | 01:56 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 22, 2024 | 2 | 16:24 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 16, 2024 | 2 | 17:59 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |