Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +7.6% FO% edge overall. Carlsson wins 43.0% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 45.0% vs Duchene 51.6% (-7.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carlsson 65.5%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 65.3%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 68.7%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 67.0%
67.0%
33.0%
Carlsson
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Carlsson
Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
1
Carlsson
Duchene
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
1
Carlsson
Duchene
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (661)
51.2% (324)
-5.7%
Power Play
46.3% (82)
60.4% (53)
-14.1%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (84)
16.7% (6)
+16.6%
On penalty kill, Carlsson has a +16.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Carlsson is 43.0% vs left-shot opponents (540).
Carlsson shoots left. Duchene is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (242).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Duchene
Home
42.5% (428)
51.6% (182)
Away
46.4% (399)
52.2% (201)
By Period
Carlsson
Duchene
P1
45.4%
49.6%
P2
39.7%
56.2%
P3
48.5%
48.6%
OT
41.7%
60.0%
Final 5 min
39.0%
51.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
44.4%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 19, 2025 | 2 | 15:10 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 2 | 08:05 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |