Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +13.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Carlsson wins 40.3% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 41.2% vs Duchene 54.1% (-13.4%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 9-1 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Carlsson 87.0%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 83.7%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 87.8%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 86.1%
86.1%
13.9%
Carlsson
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
9
(10 meetings)
1
9
Carlsson
Duchene
Last 10: Carlsson 1-9 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
1
Carlsson
Duchene
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
4
Carlsson
Duchene
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
4
Carlsson
Duchene
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
41.0% (1,844)
53.9% (10,396)
-12.9%
Power Play
42.9% (154)
56.9% (1,665)
-14.0%
Penalty Kill
35.0% (120)
49.1% (468)
-14.1%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +14.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Carlsson is 40.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,479).
Carlsson shoots left. Duchene is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,059).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Duchene
Home
42.2% (1,044)
55.6% (6,411)
Away
39.4% (1,074)
52.7% (6,142)
By Period
Carlsson
Duchene
P1
43.3%
54.5%
P2
36.5%
54.5%
P3
43.2%
53.4%
OT
40.7%
56.3%
Final 5 min
40.0%
53.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
40.8%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 19, 2025 | 2 | 15:10 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 2 | 08:05 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 18, 2025 | 3 | 16:32 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 18, 2025 | 2 | 03:41 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 18, 2025 | 2 | 00:11 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 18, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 18, 2025 | 1 | 10:15 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Jan 25, 2024 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 2 | 14:32 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 2 | 11:07 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |