Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +11.0% FO% edge overall. Carlsson wins 41.3% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 42.4% vs Duchene 52.1% (-11.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carlsson 75.7%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 72.0%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 71.2%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 72.4%
72.4%
27.6%
Carlsson
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Carlsson
Duchene
Last 5: Carlsson 1-4 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
1
Carlsson
Duchene
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
2
Carlsson
Duchene
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Carlsson
Duchene
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
41.8% (648)
53.0% (723)
-11.2%
Power Play
37.3% (51)
49.5% (101)
-12.2%
Penalty Kill
38.7% (31)
43.8% (16)
-5.1%
On power play, Duchene has a +12.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Carlsson is 41.3% vs left-shot opponents (545).
Carlsson shoots left. Duchene is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (517).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Duchene
Home
44.5% (362)
54.9% (408)
Away
38.3% (368)
50.0% (432)
By Period
Carlsson
Duchene
P1
46.3%
52.5%
P2
35.1%
51.7%
P3
43.9%
53.6%
OT
33.3%
33.3%
Final 5 min
43.9%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
41.4%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2025 | 3 | 16:32 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 18, 2025 | 2 | 03:41 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 18, 2025 | 2 | 00:11 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 18, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 18, 2025 | 1 | 10:15 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |