Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +21.7% FO% edge overall. Carlsson wins 35.3% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 37.1% vs Duchene 55.6% (-21.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carlsson 75.0%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 73.5%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 70.0%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 71.1%
71.1%
28.9%
Carlsson
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
3
(3 meetings)
0
3
Carlsson
Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
1
Carlsson
Duchene
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
2
Carlsson
Duchene
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
34.4% (535)
56.5% (566)
-22.1%
Power Play
42.9% (21)
61.3% (62)
-18.4%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (5)
22.2% (9)
+17.8%
On even strength, Duchene has a +22.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Carlsson is 35.3% vs left-shot opponents (394).
Carlsson shoots left. Duchene is 58.3% vs left-shot opponents (386).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Duchene
Home
38.6% (254)
56.6% (318)
Away
31.6% (307)
56.4% (319)
By Period
Carlsson
Duchene
P1
35.9%
57.2%
P2
33.8%
55.1%
P3
34.3%
55.6%
OT
44.4%
81.3%
Final 5 min
36.8%
47.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
34.8%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
56.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2024 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 2 | 14:32 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 2 | 11:07 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |