Scouting Report
Matty Beniers holds a +6.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Beniers on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Carlsson wins 41.3% vs left-shot opponents — Beniers shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 42.4% vs Beniers 47.8% (-6.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carlsson 68.3%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 70.5%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 69.7%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 70.2%
70.2%
29.8%
Carlsson
Beniers
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Carlsson
Beniers
Last 5: Carlsson 1-4 Beniers
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Beniers
0
3
Carlsson
Beniers
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Carlsson
Beniers
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Beniers
Edge
Even Strength
41.8% (648)
48.3% (1,050)
-6.5%
Power Play
37.3% (51)
42.9% (105)
-5.6%
Penalty Kill
38.7% (31)
43.6% (39)
-4.9%
On even strength, Beniers has a +6.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Beniers shoots left. Carlsson is 41.3% vs left-shot opponents (545).
Carlsson shoots left. Beniers is 49.1% vs left-shot opponents (821).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Beniers
Home
44.5% (362)
48.7% (630)
Away
38.3% (368)
46.5% (564)
By Period
Carlsson
Beniers
P1
46.3%
49.2%
P2
35.1%
45.0%
P3
43.9%
49.3%
OT
33.3%
22.2%
Final 5 min
43.9%
45.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
41.4%
Beniers
44.0%▼
50.5%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28, 2025 | 2 | 15:30 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Jan 28, 2025 | 2 | 06:43 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Jan 28, 2025 | 2 | 06:33 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Jan 28, 2025 | 2 | 04:40 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Jan 28, 2025 | 2 | 01:04 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |