Scouting Report
Matty Beniers holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Carlsson wins 43.0% vs left-shot opponents — Beniers shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 45.0% vs Beniers 49.4% (-4.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Beniers 53.4%
Defensive zone
Beniers 52.4%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 57.2%
Result
Matty Beniers favored at 52.9%
47.1%
52.9%
Carlsson
Beniers
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Carlsson
Beniers
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Beniers
0
1
Carlsson
Beniers
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carlsson
1
0
Carlsson
Beniers
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Beniers
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (661)
48.9% (833)
-3.4%
Power Play
46.3% (82)
58.3% (36)
-12.0%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (84)
50.0% (32)
-16.7%
On penalty kill, Beniers has a +16.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Beniers shoots left. Carlsson is 43.0% vs left-shot opponents (540).
Carlsson shoots left. Beniers is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (615).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Beniers
Home
42.5% (428)
52.4% (460)
Away
46.4% (399)
46.0% (441)
By Period
Carlsson
Beniers
P1
45.4%
48.4%
P2
39.7%
51.1%
P3
48.5%
47.8%
OT
41.7%
66.7%
Final 5 min
39.0%
45.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
44.4%
Beniers
44.0%▼
50.5%
49.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 14:14 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 05:41 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |