Scouting Report
Morgan Geekie holds a +5.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Geekie on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Carlsson wins 41.6% vs right-shot opponents — Geekie shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 42.4% vs Geekie 47.3% (-5.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carlsson 55.7%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 67.9%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 63.0%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 63.4%
63.4%
36.6%
Carlsson
Geekie
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Carlsson
Geekie
Last 6: Carlsson 2-4 Geekie
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carlsson
1
0
Carlsson
Geekie
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Geekie
0
2
Carlsson
Geekie
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Geekie
1
2
Carlsson
Geekie
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Geekie
Edge
Even Strength
41.8% (648)
45.7% (352)
-3.9%
Power Play
37.3% (51)
63.2% (19)
-25.9%
Penalty Kill
38.7% (31)
33.3% (3)
+5.4%
On power play, Geekie has a +25.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Geekie shoots right. Carlsson is 41.6% vs right-shot opponents (185).
Carlsson shoots left. Geekie is 44.6% vs left-shot opponents (307).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Geekie
Home
44.5% (362)
48.5% (165)
Away
38.3% (368)
45.0% (209)
By Period
Carlsson
Geekie
P1
46.3%
48.5%
P2
35.1%
45.1%
P3
43.9%
45.8%
Final 5 min
43.9%
47.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
41.4%
Geekie
46.0%▼
47.5%
46.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2025 | 3 | 12:46 | Neutral | Morgan Geekie |
| Mar 26, 2025 | 3 | 12:25 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 26, 2025 | 2 | 01:19 | Defensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Mar 26, 2025 | 1 | 19:58 | Neutral | Morgan Geekie |
| Mar 26, 2025 | 1 | 07:47 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 1 | 18:29 | Defensive | Morgan Geekie |