Scouting Report
Leo Carlsson holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 46.0% vs Geekie 46.8% (+1.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Geekie 64.7%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 63.8%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 51.8%
Result
Morgan Geekie favored at 50.5%
49.5%
50.5%
Carlsson
Geekie
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Carlsson
Geekie
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carlsson
1
0
Carlsson
Geekie
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carlsson
1
0
Carlsson
Geekie
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Geekie
Edge
Even Strength
47.1% (533)
44.4% (99)
+2.7%
Power Play
46.3% (80)
48.3% (29)
-2.0%
Penalty Kill
33.8% (80)
0.0% (3)
+33.8%
On penalty kill, Carlsson has a +33.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Geekie shoots right. Carlsson is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (241).
Carlsson shoots left. Geekie is 39.5% vs left-shot opponents (81).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Geekie
Home
44.4% (340)
43.7% (71)
Away
46.5% (353)
45.0% (60)
By Period
Carlsson
Geekie
P1
48.2%
39.2%
P2
38.4%
50.0%
P3
50.5%
42.9%
OT
44.4%
100.0%
Final 5 min
38.1%
36.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
40.0%▼
43.5%
45.5%
Geekie
42.0%▼
44.5%
44.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 19, 2025 | 3 | 11:32 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 2 | 07:28 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |