Scouting Report
Morgan Geekie holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Carlsson wins 47.0% vs right-shot opponents — Geekie shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 45.0% vs Geekie 47.6% (-1.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Geekie 73.7%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 57.1%
Neutral zone
Geekie 57.9%
Result
Morgan Geekie favored at 58.3%
41.7%
58.3%
Carlsson
Geekie
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Carlsson
Geekie
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carlsson
1
0
Carlsson
Geekie
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carlsson
1
0
Carlsson
Geekie
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Geekie
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (661)
47.0% (117)
-1.5%
Power Play
46.3% (82)
47.1% (34)
-0.8%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (84)
0.0% (3)
+33.3%
On penalty kill, Carlsson has a +33.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Geekie shoots right. Carlsson is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (287).
Carlsson shoots left. Geekie is 42.1% vs left-shot opponents (95).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Geekie
Home
42.5% (428)
45.3% (75)
Away
46.4% (399)
46.8% (79)
By Period
Carlsson
Geekie
P1
45.4%
43.1%
P2
39.7%
48.1%
P3
48.5%
47.5%
OT
41.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
39.0%
37.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
44.4%
Geekie
46.0%▼
47.5%
46.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 19, 2025 | 3 | 11:32 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 2 | 07:28 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |