Scouting Report
Morgan Geekie holds a +7.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Geekie on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Carlsson wins 41.9% vs right-shot opponents — Geekie shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 41.2% vs Geekie 48.5% (-7.6%)
H2H factor
Geekie leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Carlsson 57.8%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 56.1%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 57.8%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 57.3%
57.3%
42.7%
Carlsson
Geekie
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
6
(10 meetings)
4
6
Carlsson
Geekie
Last 10: Carlsson 4-6 Geekie
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Carlsson
Geekie
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Geekie
1
2
Carlsson
Geekie
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Geekie
1
2
Carlsson
Geekie
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Geekie
Edge
Even Strength
41.0% (1,844)
48.8% (2,307)
-7.8%
Power Play
42.9% (154)
45.7% (188)
-2.8%
Penalty Kill
35.0% (120)
45.7% (129)
-10.7%
On penalty kill, Geekie has a +10.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Geekie shoots right. Carlsson is 41.9% vs right-shot opponents (639).
Carlsson shoots left. Geekie is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,923).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Geekie
Home
42.2% (1,044)
50.0% (1,281)
Away
39.4% (1,074)
46.8% (1,343)
By Period
Carlsson
Geekie
P1
43.3%
48.6%
P2
36.5%
48.8%
P3
43.2%
47.7%
OT
40.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
40.0%
47.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
40.8%
Geekie
46.0%▼
47.5%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 19, 2025 | 3 | 11:32 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 2 | 07:28 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 26, 2025 | 3 | 12:46 | Neutral | Morgan Geekie |
| Mar 26, 2025 | 3 | 12:25 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 26, 2025 | 2 | 01:19 | Defensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Mar 26, 2025 | 1 | 19:58 | Neutral | Morgan Geekie |
| Mar 26, 2025 | 1 | 07:47 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 1 | 18:29 | Defensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 3 | 04:55 | Offensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 2 | 03:15 | Offensive | Morgan Geekie |