Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +13.3% FO% edge overall. Carlsson wins 33.5% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 37.1% vs Dowd 48.3% (-13.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carlsson 93.1%
Defensive zone
Dowd 64.4%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 78.8%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 50.0%
50.0%
50.0%
Carlsson
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
3
(3 meetings)
0
3
Carlsson
Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
2
Carlsson
Dowd
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
1
Carlsson
Dowd
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
34.4% (535)
49.2% (778)
-14.8%
Power Play
42.9% (21)
58.3% (12)
-15.4%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (5)
44.0% (234)
-4.0%
On power play, Dowd has a +15.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Carlsson is 33.5% vs right-shot opponents (167).
Carlsson shoots left. Dowd is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (698).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Dowd
Home
38.6% (254)
46.3% (492)
Away
31.6% (307)
49.8% (532)
By Period
Carlsson
Dowd
P1
35.9%
49.1%
P2
33.8%
48.2%
P3
34.3%
46.9%
OT
44.4%
71.4%
Final 5 min
36.8%
45.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
34.8%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
48.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2023 | 3 | 14:22 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 3 | 00:07 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 2 | 16:03 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |