Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Carlsson wins 47.0% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 45.0% vs Dowd 49.1% (-4.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carlsson 79.9%
Defensive zone
Dowd 84.3%
Neutral zone
Dowd 50.1%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 67.2%
32.8%
67.2%
Carlsson
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Carlsson
Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Carlsson
Dowd
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Carlsson
Dowd
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (661)
51.7% (644)
-6.2%
Power Play
46.3% (82)
0.0% (2)
+46.3%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (84)
41.6% (221)
-8.3%
On power play, Carlsson has a +46.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Carlsson is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (287).
Carlsson shoots left. Dowd is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Dowd
Home
42.5% (428)
48.6% (451)
Away
46.4% (399)
49.5% (416)
By Period
Carlsson
Dowd
P1
45.4%
49.1%
P2
39.7%
47.3%
P3
48.5%
51.4%
OT
41.7%
30.0%
Final 5 min
39.0%
52.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
44.4%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 5, 2026 | 3 | 12:58 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 3 | 04:29 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 5, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 5, 2025 | 1 | 16:04 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |