Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +9.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Carlsson wins 41.9% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 41.2% vs Dowd 50.7% (-9.9%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 10-2 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Carlsson 92.0%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 91.4%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 88.1%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 90.0%
90.0%
10.0%
Carlsson
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
10
(12 meetings)
2
10
Carlsson
Dowd
Last 10: Carlsson 2-8 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
6
Carlsson
Dowd
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
4
Carlsson
Dowd
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
41.0% (1,844)
52.4% (6,009)
-11.4%
Power Play
42.9% (154)
56.1% (164)
-13.2%
Penalty Kill
35.0% (120)
44.1% (1,635)
-9.1%
On power play, Dowd has a +13.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Carlsson is 41.9% vs right-shot opponents (639).
Carlsson shoots left. Dowd is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (5,134).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Dowd
Home
42.2% (1,044)
51.9% (3,897)
Away
39.4% (1,074)
49.5% (3,912)
By Period
Carlsson
Dowd
P1
43.3%
51.7%
P2
36.5%
50.4%
P3
43.2%
50.3%
OT
40.7%
45.9%
Final 5 min
40.0%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
40.8%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 5, 2026 | 3 | 12:58 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 3 | 04:29 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 5, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 5, 2025 | 1 | 16:04 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 2 | 08:36 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 2 | 01:10 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 2 | 19:01 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 2 | 05:20 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 2 | 01:16 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 3 | 14:22 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 3 | 00:07 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 2 | 16:03 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |