Scouting Report
Nick Bjugstad holds a +14.4% FO% edge overall. Carlsson wins 33.5% vs right-shot opponents — Bjugstad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 37.1% vs Bjugstad 49.3% (-14.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carlsson 82.5%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 78.9%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 81.1%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 81.2%
81.2%
18.8%
Carlsson
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
5
(5 meetings)
0
5
Carlsson
Bjugstad
Last 5: Carlsson 0-5 Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
0
2
Carlsson
Bjugstad
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
0
1
Carlsson
Bjugstad
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
0
2
Carlsson
Bjugstad
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
34.4% (535)
50.7% (906)
-16.3%
Power Play
42.9% (21)
48.1% (108)
-5.2%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (5)
44.4% (239)
-4.4%
On even strength, Bjugstad has a +16.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Carlsson is 33.5% vs right-shot opponents (167).
Carlsson shoots left. Bjugstad is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (906).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Bjugstad
Home
38.6% (254)
49.8% (643)
Away
31.6% (307)
48.7% (610)
By Period
Carlsson
Bjugstad
P1
35.9%
49.4%
P2
33.8%
50.5%
P3
34.3%
47.9%
OT
44.4%
50.0%
Final 5 min
36.8%
48.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
34.8%
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
49.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2023 | 3 | 08:06 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 1, 2023 | 2 | 19:33 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 1, 2023 | 2 | 13:47 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 2 | 03:29 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 1 | 10:17 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |