Scouting Report
Nick Bjugstad holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Carlsson wins 47.0% vs right-shot opponents — Bjugstad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 45.0% vs Bjugstad 49.1% (-4.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carlsson 69.1%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 59.3%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 53.4%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 58.7%
58.7%
41.3%
Carlsson
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Carlsson
Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
0
1
Carlsson
Bjugstad
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Carlsson
Bjugstad
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (661)
48.9% (280)
-3.4%
Power Play
46.3% (82)
50.0% (6)
-3.7%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (84)
47.2% (36)
-13.9%
On penalty kill, Bjugstad has a +13.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Carlsson is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (287).
Carlsson shoots left. Bjugstad is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (254).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Bjugstad
Home
42.5% (428)
48.4% (190)
Away
46.4% (399)
49.2% (132)
By Period
Carlsson
Bjugstad
P1
45.4%
41.7%
P2
39.7%
56.6%
P3
48.5%
48.7%
OT
41.7%
33.3%
Final 5 min
39.0%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
44.4%
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
48.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1, 2025 | 3 | 05:13 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 3 | 02:53 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 2 | 15:03 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |