Scouting Report
Nick Bjugstad holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Bjugstad on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Carlsson wins 41.6% vs right-shot opponents — Bjugstad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 42.4% vs Bjugstad 47.9% (-6.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carlsson 68.6%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 69.7%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 67.9%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 67.9%
67.9%
32.1%
Carlsson
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
3
(3 meetings)
0
3
Carlsson
Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
0
3
Carlsson
Bjugstad
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
41.8% (648)
46.7% (398)
-4.9%
Power Play
37.3% (51)
51.6% (31)
-14.3%
Penalty Kill
38.7% (31)
62.5% (8)
-23.8%
On penalty kill, Bjugstad has a +23.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Carlsson is 41.6% vs right-shot opponents (185).
Carlsson shoots left. Bjugstad is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (323).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Bjugstad
Home
44.5% (362)
47.3% (220)
Away
38.3% (368)
47.5% (217)
By Period
Carlsson
Bjugstad
P1
46.3%
46.1%
P2
35.1%
46.3%
P3
43.9%
50.4%
Final 5 min
43.9%
46.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
41.4%
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
47.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 22, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 22, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 22, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |