Scouting Report
Noah Cates holds a +9.7% FO% edge overall. Carlsson wins 35.3% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 37.1% vs Cates 45.8% (-9.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carlsson 61.1%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 60.0%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 64.1%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 62.3%
62.3%
37.7%
Carlsson
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Carlsson
Cates
Last 8: Carlsson 3-5 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Carlsson
Cates
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
2
Carlsson
Cates
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Carlsson
Cates
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
34.4% (535)
44.3% (271)
-9.9%
Power Play
42.9% (21)
77.8% (18)
-34.9%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (5)
31.7% (41)
+8.3%
On power play, Cates has a +34.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Carlsson is 35.3% vs left-shot opponents (394).
Carlsson shoots left. Cates is 42.9% vs left-shot opponents (224).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Cates
Home
38.6% (254)
52.0% (148)
Away
31.6% (307)
38.5% (182)
By Period
Carlsson
Cates
P1
35.9%
42.7%
P2
33.8%
42.9%
P3
34.3%
48.5%
Final 5 min
36.8%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
34.8%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 2023 | 2 | 08:04 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Oct 28, 2023 | 3 | 09:58 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 28, 2023 | 3 | 09:51 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Oct 28, 2023 | 3 | 03:14 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Oct 28, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Oct 28, 2023 | 2 | 19:06 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Oct 28, 2023 | 2 | 07:39 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 28, 2023 | 1 | 04:25 | Offensive | Noah Cates |