Scouting Report
Noah Cates holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Carlsson wins 40.3% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 41.2% vs Cates 43.2% (-2.2%)
H2H factor
Cates leads 9-5 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Carlsson 72.0%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 53.4%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 60.8%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 62.4%
62.4%
37.6%
Carlsson
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
9
(14 meetings)
5
9
Carlsson
Cates
Last 10: Carlsson 3-7 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
1
3
Carlsson
Cates
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
3
Carlsson
Cates
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carlsson
4
3
Carlsson
Cates
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
41.0% (1,844)
44.1% (2,742)
-3.1%
Power Play
42.9% (154)
43.0% (242)
-0.1%
Penalty Kill
35.0% (120)
34.9% (373)
+0.1%
On even strength, Cates has a +3.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Carlsson is 40.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,479).
Carlsson shoots left. Cates is 41.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,284).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Cates
Home
42.2% (1,044)
43.8% (1,663)
Away
39.4% (1,074)
42.1% (1,694)
By Period
Carlsson
Cates
P1
43.3%
44.5%
P2
36.5%
43.5%
P3
43.2%
41.2%
OT
40.7%
29.4%
Final 5 min
40.0%
41.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
40.8%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
43.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2026 | 2 | 12:06 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 2 | 08:17 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 03:31 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 14:40 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 1 | 18:11 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 3 | 16:39 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 10, 2023 | 2 | 08:04 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Oct 28, 2023 | 3 | 09:58 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 28, 2023 | 3 | 09:51 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Oct 28, 2023 | 3 | 03:14 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Oct 28, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Oct 28, 2023 | 2 | 19:06 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Oct 28, 2023 | 2 | 07:39 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 28, 2023 | 1 | 04:25 | Offensive | Noah Cates |