Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (44.4% vs 44.9%). Carlsson wins 43.0% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 45.0% vs Cates 45.5% (-0.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carlsson 51.1%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 53.3%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 54.5%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 52.8%
52.8%
47.2%
Carlsson
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Carlsson
Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
2
Carlsson
Cates
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Carlsson
Cates
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (661)
45.4% (712)
+0.1%
Power Play
46.3% (82)
42.2% (102)
+4.1%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (84)
44.7% (47)
-11.4%
On penalty kill, Cates has a +11.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Carlsson is 43.0% vs left-shot opponents (540).
Carlsson shoots left. Cates is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (541).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Cates
Home
42.5% (428)
46.3% (423)
Away
46.4% (399)
43.6% (438)
By Period
Carlsson
Cates
P1
45.4%
46.3%
P2
39.7%
47.1%
P3
48.5%
42.1%
OT
41.7%
18.2%
Final 5 min
39.0%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
44.4%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2026 | 2 | 12:06 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 2 | 08:17 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 03:31 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 14:40 | Neutral | Noah Cates |