Scouting Report
Phillip Danault holds a +10.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Danault on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Carlsson wins 43.0% vs left-shot opponents — Danault shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 45.0% vs Danault 54.8% (-10.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carlsson 55.6%
Defensive zone
Danault 70.3%
Neutral zone
Danault 52.5%
Result
Phillip Danault favored at 56.2%
43.8%
56.2%
Carlsson
Danault
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Carlsson
Danault
Last 8: Carlsson 4-4 Danault
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carlsson
2
1
Carlsson
Danault
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Danault
0
3
Carlsson
Danault
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carlsson
2
0
Carlsson
Danault
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Danault
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (661)
56.5% (711)
-11.0%
Power Play
46.3% (82)
46.0% (50)
+0.3%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (84)
51.7% (116)
-18.4%
On penalty kill, Danault has a +18.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Danault shoots left. Carlsson is 43.0% vs left-shot opponents (540).
Carlsson shoots left. Danault is 55.3% vs left-shot opponents (588).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Danault
Home
42.5% (428)
57.0% (379)
Away
46.4% (399)
54.0% (498)
By Period
Carlsson
Danault
P1
45.4%
55.8%
P2
39.7%
55.3%
P3
48.5%
54.8%
OT
41.7%
55.6%
Final 5 min
39.0%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
44.4%
Danault
54.0%▼
57.5%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 | 3 | 08:10 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 3 | 07:08 | Defensive | Phillip Danault |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 2 | 00:35 | Defensive | Phillip Danault |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 1 | 17:49 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 3 | 06:53 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 2 | 00:32 | Offensive | Phillip Danault |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 05:50 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 03:01 | Defensive | Phillip Danault |