Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (44.4% vs 45.0%). Carlsson wins 47.0% vs right-shot opponents — Hartman shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 45.0% vs Hartman 45.5% (-0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hartman 56.8%
Defensive zone
Hartman 61.5%
Neutral zone
Hartman 56.4%
Result
Ryan Hartman favored at 56.6%
43.4%
56.6%
Carlsson
Hartman
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Carlsson
Hartman
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Carlsson
Hartman
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carlsson
2
0
Carlsson
Hartman
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Hartman
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (661)
44.8% (830)
+0.7%
Power Play
46.3% (82)
47.8% (92)
-1.5%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (84)
37.5% (16)
-4.2%
On penalty kill, Hartman has a +4.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hartman shoots right. Carlsson is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (287).
Carlsson shoots left. Hartman is 45.1% vs left-shot opponents (654).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Hartman
Home
42.5% (428)
45.0% (515)
Away
46.4% (399)
44.9% (423)
By Period
Carlsson
Hartman
P1
45.4%
46.5%
P2
39.7%
39.9%
P3
48.5%
48.6%
OT
41.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
39.0%
43.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
44.4%
Hartman
54.0%▲
52.0%
45.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2, 2026 | 3 | 15:02 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 2 | 06:26 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 1 | 12:33 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 1 | 06:11 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |