Scouting Report
Ryan Hartman holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Hartman on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Carlsson wins 41.9% vs right-shot opponents — Hartman shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 41.2% vs Hartman 45.3% (-4.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carlsson 58.8%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 56.6%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 59.0%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 58.9%
58.9%
41.1%
Carlsson
Hartman
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Carlsson
Hartman
Last 7: Carlsson 3-4 Hartman
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hartman
1
3
Carlsson
Hartman
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carlsson
2
1
Carlsson
Hartman
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Hartman
Edge
Even Strength
41.0% (1,844)
45.2% (4,235)
-4.2%
Power Play
42.9% (154)
47.4% (443)
-4.5%
Penalty Kill
35.0% (120)
42.4% (262)
-7.4%
On penalty kill, Hartman has a +7.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hartman shoots right. Carlsson is 41.9% vs right-shot opponents (639).
Carlsson shoots left. Hartman is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (3,559).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Hartman
Home
42.2% (1,044)
46.7% (2,589)
Away
39.4% (1,074)
43.6% (2,351)
By Period
Carlsson
Hartman
P1
43.3%
46.0%
P2
36.5%
42.9%
P3
43.2%
46.8%
OT
40.7%
53.8%
Final 5 min
40.0%
46.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
40.8%
Hartman
54.0%▲
52.0%
45.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2, 2026 | 3 | 15:02 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 2 | 06:26 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 1 | 12:33 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 1 | 06:11 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 1 | 06:11 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 1 | 06:05 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 1 | 18:37 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |