Leo Carlsson vs Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Carlsson wins 44.0% vs left-shot opponents — Nugent-Hopkins shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 46.0% vs Nugent-Hopkins 47.7% (-1.1%)
Offensive zone
Carlsson 52.6%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 52.9%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 52.4%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 52.6%
52.6%
47.4%
Carlsson
Nugent-Hopkins
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Nugent-Hopkins
Edge
Even Strength
47.1% (533)
47.6% (189)
-0.5%
Power Play
46.3% (80)
100.0% (2)
-53.7%
Penalty Kill
33.8% (80)
29.4% (17)
+4.4%
On power play, Nugent-Hopkins has a +53.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Carlsson is 44.0% vs left-shot opponents (452).
Carlsson shoots left. Nugent-Hopkins is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (132).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Nugent-Hopkins
Home
44.4% (340)
48.5% (132)
Away
46.5% (353)
43.4% (76)
By Period
Carlsson
Nugent-Hopkins
P1
48.2%
51.4%
P2
38.4%
41.3%
P3
50.5%
48.5%
OT
44.4%
0.0%
Final 5 min
38.1%
44.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
40.0%▼
43.5%
45.5%
Nugent-Hopkins
48.0%▲
46.5%
46.6%