Leo Carlsson vs Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Carlsson wins 43.0% vs left-shot opponents — Nugent-Hopkins shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 45.0% vs Nugent-Hopkins 48.6% (-3.7%)
Offensive zone
Nugent-Hopkins 51.7%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 53.3%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 52.2%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 51.3%
51.3%
48.7%
Carlsson
Nugent-Hopkins
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Nugent-Hopkins
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (661)
47.6% (231)
-2.1%
Power Play
46.3% (82)
83.3% (12)
-37.0%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (84)
33.3% (21)
+0.0%
On power play, Nugent-Hopkins has a +37.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Carlsson is 43.0% vs left-shot opponents (540).
Carlsson shoots left. Nugent-Hopkins is 49.4% vs left-shot opponents (168).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Nugent-Hopkins
Home
42.5% (428)
51.2% (164)
Away
46.4% (399)
43.0% (100)
By Period
Carlsson
Nugent-Hopkins
P1
45.4%
50.0%
P2
39.7%
46.2%
P3
48.5%
49.5%
OT
41.7%
0.0%
Final 5 min
39.0%
44.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
44.4%
Nugent-Hopkins
58.0%▲
50.0%
48.1%