Scouting Report
Sean Couturier holds a +8.3% FO% edge overall. Carlsson wins 44.0% vs left-shot opponents — Couturier shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 46.0% vs Couturier 53.4% (-8.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carlsson 64.2%
Defensive zone
Couturier 58.4%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 59.2%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 57.7%
57.7%
42.3%
Carlsson
Couturier
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Carlsson
Couturier
Last 5: Carlsson 2-3 Couturier
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Carlsson
Couturier
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Couturier
0
1
Carlsson
Couturier
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Carlsson
Couturier
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Couturier
Edge
Even Strength
47.1% (533)
52.6% (624)
-5.5%
Power Play
46.3% (80)
66.7% (66)
-20.4%
Penalty Kill
33.8% (80)
53.2% (188)
-19.4%
On power play, Couturier has a +20.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Couturier shoots left. Carlsson is 44.0% vs left-shot opponents (452).
Carlsson shoots left. Couturier is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (581).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Couturier
Home
44.4% (340)
50.7% (424)
Away
46.5% (353)
56.6% (454)
By Period
Carlsson
Couturier
P1
48.2%
55.5%
P2
38.4%
51.7%
P3
50.5%
55.2%
OT
44.4%
42.9%
Final 5 min
38.1%
58.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
40.0%▼
43.5%
45.5%
Couturier
46.0%▼
47.5%
53.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 11:04 | Neutral | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 14:56 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 01:33 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 01:15 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 18:56 | Offensive | Sean Couturier |