Scouting Report
Sean Couturier holds a +9.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Couturier on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Carlsson wins 43.0% vs left-shot opponents — Couturier shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 45.0% vs Couturier 53.2% (-9.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carlsson 75.2%
Defensive zone
Couturier 52.5%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 65.1%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 67.2%
67.2%
32.8%
Carlsson
Couturier
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Carlsson
Couturier
Last 6: Carlsson 2-4 Couturier
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Couturier
1
2
Carlsson
Couturier
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Couturier
0
1
Carlsson
Couturier
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Carlsson
Couturier
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Couturier
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (661)
53.4% (758)
-7.9%
Power Play
46.3% (82)
62.9% (70)
-16.6%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (84)
50.7% (227)
-17.4%
On penalty kill, Couturier has a +17.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Couturier shoots left. Carlsson is 43.0% vs left-shot opponents (540).
Carlsson shoots left. Couturier is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (680).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Couturier
Home
42.5% (428)
50.7% (517)
Away
46.4% (399)
56.1% (538)
By Period
Carlsson
Couturier
P1
45.4%
55.2%
P2
39.7%
53.0%
P3
48.5%
53.3%
OT
41.7%
42.4%
Final 5 min
39.0%
55.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
44.4%
Couturier
52.0%▬
51.0%
53.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2026 | 3 | 11:24 | Offensive | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 11:04 | Neutral | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 14:56 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 01:33 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 01:15 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 18:56 | Offensive | Sean Couturier |