Scouting Report
Sean Kuraly holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Carlsson wins 43.0% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 45.0% vs Kuraly 50.1% (-5.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carlsson 78.5%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 64.1%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 58.5%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 53.4%
53.4%
46.6%
Carlsson
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Carlsson
Kuraly
Last 5: Carlsson 2-3 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carlsson
1
0
Carlsson
Kuraly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Carlsson
Kuraly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kuraly
0
2
Carlsson
Kuraly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (661)
51.8% (444)
-6.3%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (84)
45.3% (150)
-12.0%
On penalty kill, Kuraly has a +12.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Carlsson is 43.0% vs left-shot opponents (540).
Carlsson shoots left. Kuraly is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (368).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Kuraly
Home
42.5% (428)
54.6% (304)
Away
46.4% (399)
45.5% (290)
By Period
Carlsson
Kuraly
P1
45.4%
55.2%
P2
39.7%
45.7%
P3
48.5%
49.5%
OT
41.7%
0.0%
Final 5 min
39.0%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
44.4%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
50.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 19, 2025 | 2 | 18:27 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 2 | 00:12 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 1 | 04:57 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 1 | 02:29 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 05:18 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |