Scouting Report
Sean Kuraly holds a +9.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Kuraly on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Carlsson wins 40.3% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 41.2% vs Kuraly 50.3% (-9.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carlsson 84.6%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 64.2%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 66.3%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 60.9%
60.9%
39.1%
Carlsson
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Carlsson
Kuraly
Last 8: Carlsson 3-5 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carlsson
1
0
Carlsson
Kuraly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Carlsson
Kuraly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kuraly
1
4
Carlsson
Kuraly
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
41.0% (1,844)
51.5% (5,141)
-10.5%
Power Play
42.9% (154)
56.0% (100)
-13.1%
Penalty Kill
35.0% (120)
44.2% (1,086)
-9.2%
On power play, Kuraly has a +13.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Carlsson is 40.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,479).
Carlsson shoots left. Kuraly is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (4,102).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Kuraly
Home
42.2% (1,044)
51.9% (3,187)
Away
39.4% (1,074)
48.7% (3,141)
By Period
Carlsson
Kuraly
P1
43.3%
51.1%
P2
36.5%
49.9%
P3
43.2%
50.0%
OT
40.7%
52.3%
Final 5 min
40.0%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
40.8%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 19, 2025 | 2 | 18:27 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 2 | 00:12 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 1 | 04:57 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 1 | 02:29 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 05:18 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 2 | 13:56 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Feb 21, 2024 | 2 | 16:05 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Feb 21, 2024 | 1 | 03:32 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |