Scouting Report
Shane Pinto holds a +6.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Pinto on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Carlsson wins 47.0% vs right-shot opponents — Pinto shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 45.0% vs Pinto 50.7% (-6.4%)
H2H factor
Pinto leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Carlsson 80.4%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 53.4%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 71.5%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 67.0%
67.0%
33.0%
Carlsson
Pinto
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
7
(10 meetings)
3
7
Carlsson
Pinto
Last 10: Carlsson 3-7 Pinto
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pinto
0
1
Carlsson
Pinto
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pinto
0
3
Carlsson
Pinto
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Carlsson
Pinto
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Pinto
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (661)
50.2% (520)
-4.7%
Power Play
46.3% (82)
68.0% (25)
-21.7%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (84)
49.4% (89)
-16.1%
On power play, Pinto has a +21.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pinto shoots right. Carlsson is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (287).
Carlsson shoots left. Pinto is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (460).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Pinto
Home
42.5% (428)
48.8% (301)
Away
46.4% (399)
52.6% (333)
By Period
Carlsson
Pinto
P1
45.4%
51.2%
P2
39.7%
48.9%
P3
48.5%
53.3%
OT
41.7%
44.4%
Final 5 min
39.0%
50.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
44.4%
Pinto
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 15:48 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 11:35 | Neutral | Shane Pinto |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 09:09 | Neutral | Shane Pinto |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 03:24 | Neutral | Shane Pinto |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 00:10 | Defensive | Shane Pinto |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 18:02 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 14:08 | Defensive | Shane Pinto |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 12:24 | Defensive | Shane Pinto |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 18:35 | Offensive | Shane Pinto |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |