Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (44.4% vs 44.7%). Look for Thompson on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Carlsson wins 47.0% vs right-shot opponents — Thompson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 45.0% vs Thompson 45.3% (-0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carlsson 51.1%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 52.5%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 51.4%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 52.2%
52.2%
47.8%
Carlsson
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Carlsson
Thompson
Last 5: Carlsson 1-4 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carlsson
1
0
Carlsson
Thompson
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
0
4
Carlsson
Thompson
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (661)
44.9% (642)
+0.6%
Power Play
46.3% (82)
47.9% (94)
-1.6%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (84)
33.3% (33)
+0.0%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Carlsson is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (287).
Carlsson shoots left. Thompson is 42.1% vs left-shot opponents (549).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Thompson
Home
42.5% (428)
46.0% (391)
Away
46.4% (399)
43.4% (378)
By Period
Carlsson
Thompson
P1
45.4%
48.1%
P2
39.7%
44.9%
P3
48.5%
41.2%
OT
41.7%
42.9%
Final 5 min
39.0%
42.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
44.4%
Thompson
36.0%▼
39.5%
44.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 07:45 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 12:28 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 09:53 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 03:43 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 00:42 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |