Scouting Report
Tage Thompson holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Thompson on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Carlsson wins 41.9% vs right-shot opponents — Thompson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 41.2% vs Thompson 42.8% (-1.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carlsson 59.0%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 58.6%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 58.1%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 58.8%
58.8%
41.2%
Carlsson
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Carlsson
Thompson
Last 7: Carlsson 2-5 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carlsson
2
1
Carlsson
Thompson
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
0
4
Carlsson
Thompson
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
41.0% (1,844)
42.9% (3,521)
-1.9%
Power Play
42.9% (154)
46.8% (372)
-3.9%
Penalty Kill
35.0% (120)
33.6% (265)
+1.4%
On power play, Thompson has a +3.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Carlsson is 41.9% vs right-shot opponents (639).
Carlsson shoots left. Thompson is 40.9% vs left-shot opponents (3,011).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Thompson
Home
42.2% (1,044)
44.9% (2,115)
Away
39.4% (1,074)
40.3% (2,043)
By Period
Carlsson
Thompson
P1
43.3%
44.5%
P2
36.5%
43.6%
P3
43.2%
40.2%
OT
40.7%
36.4%
Final 5 min
40.0%
41.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
40.8%
Thompson
36.0%▼
39.5%
42.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 07:45 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 12:28 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 09:53 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 03:43 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 00:42 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 3 | 15:32 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 1 | 03:12 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |