Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +14.5% FO% edge overall. Carlsson wins 41.3% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 42.4% vs Hertl 55.4% (-14.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 54.4%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 64.1%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 56.5%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 55.4%
55.4%
44.6%
Carlsson
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Carlsson
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Carlsson
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carlsson
1
0
Carlsson
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Carlsson
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
41.8% (648)
54.1% (717)
-12.3%
Power Play
37.3% (51)
61.9% (210)
-24.6%
Penalty Kill
38.7% (31)
58.1% (31)
-19.4%
On power play, Hertl has a +24.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Carlsson is 41.3% vs left-shot opponents (545).
Carlsson shoots left. Hertl is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (596).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Hertl
Home
44.5% (362)
58.1% (492)
Away
38.3% (368)
53.6% (466)
By Period
Carlsson
Hertl
P1
46.3%
57.1%
P2
35.1%
54.0%
P3
43.9%
56.6%
OT
33.3%
66.7%
Final 5 min
43.9%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
41.4%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2024 | 3 | 14:30 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 13, 2024 | 2 | 11:15 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 13, 2024 | 1 | 18:04 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |