Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +13.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Carlsson wins 40.3% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 41.2% vs Hertl 54.2% (-13.4%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 18-10 in 28 meetings
Offensive zone
Carlsson 91.5%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 92.8%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 92.7%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 92.5%
92.5%
7.5%
Carlsson
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
18
(28 meetings)
10
18
Carlsson
Hertl
Last 10: Carlsson 3-7 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
5
Carlsson
Hertl
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
4
7
Carlsson
Hertl
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
5
6
Carlsson
Hertl
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
41.0% (1,844)
53.8% (8,268)
-12.8%
Power Play
42.9% (154)
59.3% (1,975)
-16.4%
Penalty Kill
35.0% (120)
46.3% (806)
-11.3%
On power play, Hertl has a +16.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Carlsson is 40.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,479).
Carlsson shoots left. Hertl is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (6,916).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Hertl
Home
42.2% (1,044)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
39.4% (1,074)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
Carlsson
Hertl
P1
43.3%
53.6%
P2
36.5%
54.1%
P3
43.2%
55.3%
OT
40.7%
46.5%
Final 5 min
40.0%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
40.8%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 17:32 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 08:11 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 2 | 10:42 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 2 | 02:24 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 2 | 01:33 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 1 | 17:34 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 1 | 17:10 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 1 | 14:03 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 1 | 11:24 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 1 | 09:20 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 19:09 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 10:49 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 16:18 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 13, 2024 | 3 | 14:30 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 13, 2024 | 2 | 11:15 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 13, 2024 | 1 | 18:04 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Apr 18, 2024 | 2 | 18:47 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Apr 18, 2024 | 2 | 05:20 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 18, 2024 | 1 | 10:00 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 18, 2024 | 1 | 02:35 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |