Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +13.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Carlsson wins 43.0% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 45.0% vs Hertl 57.2% (-13.4%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 10-3 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Carlsson 84.1%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 85.3%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 85.9%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 84.9%
84.9%
15.1%
Carlsson
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
10
(13 meetings)
3
10
Carlsson
Hertl
Last 10: Carlsson 3-7 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
4
Carlsson
Hertl
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
4
Carlsson
Hertl
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Carlsson
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (661)
58.1% (823)
-12.6%
Power Play
46.3% (82)
56.2% (265)
-9.9%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (84)
62.9% (35)
-29.6%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +29.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Carlsson is 43.0% vs left-shot opponents (540).
Carlsson shoots left. Hertl is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (690).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Hertl
Home
42.5% (428)
59.7% (561)
Away
46.4% (399)
55.9% (562)
By Period
Carlsson
Hertl
P1
45.4%
51.6%
P2
39.7%
63.8%
P3
48.5%
58.6%
OT
41.7%
28.6%
Final 5 min
39.0%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
44.4%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 17:32 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 08:11 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 2 | 10:42 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 2 | 02:24 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 2 | 01:33 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 1 | 17:34 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 1 | 17:10 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 1 | 14:03 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 1 | 11:24 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 1 | 09:20 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 19:09 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 10:49 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 16:18 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |