Scouting Report
Tyler Seguin holds a +12.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Seguin on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Carlsson wins 41.9% vs right-shot opponents — Seguin shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 41.2% vs Seguin 53.6% (-12.8%)
H2H factor
Seguin leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Carlsson 76.8%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 75.3%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 79.2%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 77.0%
77.0%
23.0%
Carlsson
Seguin
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
7
(10 meetings)
3
7
Carlsson
Seguin
Last 10: Carlsson 3-7 Seguin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Seguin
0
1
Carlsson
Seguin
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Seguin
1
4
Carlsson
Seguin
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Carlsson
Seguin
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Seguin
Edge
Even Strength
41.0% (1,844)
53.7% (8,071)
-12.7%
Power Play
42.9% (154)
55.9% (810)
-13.0%
Penalty Kill
35.0% (120)
49.3% (762)
-14.3%
On penalty kill, Seguin has a +14.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Seguin shoots right. Carlsson is 41.9% vs right-shot opponents (639).
Carlsson shoots left. Seguin is 53.4% vs left-shot opponents (6,798).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Seguin
Home
42.2% (1,044)
55.9% (4,759)
Away
39.4% (1,074)
51.4% (4,885)
By Period
Carlsson
Seguin
P1
43.3%
52.8%
P2
36.5%
53.3%
P3
43.2%
54.7%
OT
40.7%
54.7%
Final 5 min
40.0%
54.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
40.8%
Seguin
42.0%▼
54.0%
53.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2025 | 3 | 17:05 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 3 | 16:39 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 2 | 19:18 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 2 | 09:26 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 1 | 13:25 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 1 | 09:42 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 18, 2024 | 2 | 16:46 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 2 | 07:48 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |