Scouting Report
Vincent Trocheck holds a +12.2% FO% edge overall. Carlsson wins 47.0% vs right-shot opponents — Trocheck shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 45.0% vs Trocheck 56.0% (-12.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Trocheck 69.2%
Defensive zone
Trocheck 78.2%
Neutral zone
Trocheck 62.4%
Result
Vincent Trocheck favored at 76.4%
23.6%
76.4%
Carlsson
Trocheck
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Carlsson
Trocheck
Last 5: Carlsson 3-2 Trocheck
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carlsson
1
0
Carlsson
Trocheck
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Carlsson
Trocheck
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Trocheck
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (661)
57.8% (626)
-12.3%
Power Play
46.3% (82)
63.6% (151)
-17.3%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (84)
44.0% (141)
-10.7%
On power play, Trocheck has a +17.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Trocheck shoots right. Carlsson is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (287).
Carlsson shoots left. Trocheck is 57.3% vs left-shot opponents (627).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Trocheck
Home
42.5% (428)
54.4% (390)
Away
46.4% (399)
58.3% (528)
By Period
Carlsson
Trocheck
P1
45.4%
56.4%
P2
39.7%
58.7%
P3
48.5%
54.8%
OT
41.7%
57.1%
Final 5 min
39.0%
53.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
44.4%
Trocheck
60.0%▲
57.0%
56.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 15, 2025 | 3 | 03:51 | Defensive | Vincent Trocheck |
| Dec 15, 2025 | 2 | 17:25 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 15, 2025 | 2 | 06:07 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 15, 2025 | 2 | 03:23 | Defensive | Vincent Trocheck |
| Dec 15, 2025 | 1 | 07:21 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |