Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Carrick on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Celebrini 48.9% vs Carrick 53.7% (-5.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Celebrini 75.1%
Defensive zone
Carrick 74.4%
Neutral zone
Celebrini 50.7%
Result
Macklin Celebrini favored at 53.5%
53.5%
46.5%
Celebrini
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Celebrini
Carrick
Last 8: Celebrini 4-4 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Celebrini
Carrick
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
1
2
Celebrini
Carrick
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Celebrini
1
0
Celebrini
Carrick
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Celebrini
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
48.2% (924)
54.9% (428)
-6.7%
Power Play
52.8% (108)
66.7% (3)
-13.9%
Penalty Kill
56.0% (25)
50.0% (50)
+6.0%
On power play, Carrick has a +13.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Celebrini is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (324).
Celebrini shoots left. Carrick is 53.4% vs left-shot opponents (341).
Home / Away
Celebrini
Carrick
Home
47.8% (523)
58.2% (225)
Away
49.8% (534)
51.2% (256)
By Period
Celebrini
Carrick
P1
47.8%
55.2%
P2
47.4%
52.8%
P3
51.1%
55.4%
Final 5 min
45.2%
55.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Celebrini
48.0%▲
46.0%
48.8%
Carrick
54.0%▼
56.5%
54.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2026 | 3 | 05:44 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 17:56 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 14:30 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 1 | 17:21 | Offensive | Macklin Celebrini |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 19:53 | Offensive | Macklin Celebrini |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 17:09 | Defensive | Macklin Celebrini |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 02:55 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 04:04 | Neutral | Macklin Celebrini |