Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Celebrini on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Celebrini wins 45.3% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Celebrini 48.4% vs Carrick 53.7% (-6.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Celebrini 83.9%
Defensive zone
Carrick 63.6%
Neutral zone
Celebrini 53.1%
Result
Macklin Celebrini favored at 64.9%
64.9%
35.1%
Celebrini
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Celebrini
Carrick
Last 5: Celebrini 2-3 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Celebrini
2
1
Celebrini
Carrick
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
2
Celebrini
Carrick
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Celebrini
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
47.2% (901)
53.8% (654)
-6.6%
Power Play
54.7% (139)
0.0% (2)
+54.7%
Penalty Kill
54.5% (11)
63.9% (36)
-9.4%
On power play, Celebrini has a +54.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Celebrini is 45.3% vs right-shot opponents (340).
Celebrini shoots left. Carrick is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (503).
Home / Away
Celebrini
Carrick
Home
47.6% (553)
50.0% (328)
Away
49.0% (498)
58.0% (364)
By Period
Celebrini
Carrick
P1
46.6%
56.7%
P2
46.4%
51.1%
P3
51.8%
54.8%
Final 5 min
48.7%
48.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Celebrini
48.0%▲
46.0%
48.2%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2025 | 1 | 04:42 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 14, 2024 | 3 | 12:44 | Offensive | Macklin Celebrini |
| Nov 14, 2024 | 3 | 12:41 | Offensive | Macklin Celebrini |
| Nov 14, 2024 | 3 | 11:17 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 14, 2024 | 2 | 12:26 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |