Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Carrick on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Celebrini 48.9% vs Carrick 53.8% (-5.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Celebrini 77.9%
Defensive zone
Carrick 74.8%
Neutral zone
Celebrini 50.2%
Result
Macklin Celebrini favored at 54.6%
54.6%
45.4%
Celebrini
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Celebrini
Carrick
Last 8: Celebrini 4-4 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Celebrini
Carrick
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
1
2
Celebrini
Carrick
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Celebrini
1
0
Celebrini
Carrick
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Celebrini
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
48.2% (924)
55.1% (439)
-6.9%
Power Play
52.8% (108)
66.7% (3)
-13.9%
Penalty Kill
56.0% (25)
49.1% (53)
+6.9%
On power play, Carrick has a +13.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Celebrini is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (324).
Celebrini shoots left. Carrick is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (355).
Home / Away
Celebrini
Carrick
Home
47.8% (523)
58.2% (225)
Away
49.8% (534)
51.5% (270)
By Period
Celebrini
Carrick
P1
47.8%
56.7%
P2
47.4%
52.8%
P3
51.1%
54.4%
Final 5 min
45.2%
54.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Celebrini
48.0%▲
46.0%
48.8%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
54.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2026 | 3 | 05:44 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 17:56 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 14:30 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 1 | 17:21 | Offensive | Macklin Celebrini |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 19:53 | Offensive | Macklin Celebrini |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 17:09 | Defensive | Macklin Celebrini |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 02:55 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 04:04 | Neutral | Macklin Celebrini |