Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +13.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Kasper on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Kasper wins 42.1% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kasper 45.6% vs Sturm 57.1% (-13.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Sturm 60.2%
Defensive zone
Sturm 89.4%
Neutral zone
Sturm 83.2%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 78.7%
21.3%
78.7%
Kasper
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Kasper
Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Kasper
Sturm
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kasper
2
1
Kasper
Sturm
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kasper
1
0
Kasper
Sturm
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kasper
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
45.1% (586)
62.1% (356)
-17.0%
Power Play
52.2% (23)
75.0% (4)
-22.8%
Penalty Kill
29.4% (17)
38.7% (62)
-9.3%
On power play, Sturm has a +22.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Kasper is 42.1% vs left-shot opponents (411).
Kasper shoots left. Sturm is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (279).
Home / Away
Kasper
Sturm
Home
47.9% (280)
61.8% (191)
Away
42.5% (346)
56.3% (231)
By Period
Kasper
Sturm
P1
45.8%
58.0%
P2
50.0%
57.9%
P3
38.4%
60.6%
Final 5 min
40.3%
58.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kasper
52.0%▬
52.5%
44.9%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
58.8%