Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +9.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Kasper on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Kasper wins 42.6% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kasper 46.8% vs Sturm 56.1% (-9.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Sturm 53.9%
Defensive zone
Sturm 88.3%
Neutral zone
Sturm 76.8%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 74.9%
25.1%
74.9%
Kasper
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Kasper
Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Kasper
Sturm
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kasper
2
1
Kasper
Sturm
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kasper
1
0
Kasper
Sturm
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kasper
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
47.0% (944)
57.1% (2,719)
-10.1%
Power Play
46.9% (32)
61.3% (62)
-14.4%
Penalty Kill
30.6% (36)
51.0% (498)
-20.4%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +20.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Kasper is 42.6% vs left-shot opponents (671).
Kasper shoots left. Sturm is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (2,186).
Home / Away
Kasper
Sturm
Home
49.1% (464)
57.1% (1,614)
Away
44.2% (548)
55.4% (1,665)
By Period
Kasper
Sturm
P1
47.8%
56.5%
P2
51.0%
54.9%
P3
39.9%
57.4%
OT
66.7%
60.6%
Final 5 min
41.2%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kasper
52.0%▬
52.5%
46.4%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%