Scouting Report
Nicolas Roy holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Kasper on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Kasper wins 60.3% vs right-shot opponents — Roy shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kasper 49.8% vs Roy 51.9% (-2.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kasper 61.9%
Defensive zone
Roy 77.2%
Neutral zone
Roy 58.5%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 58.2%
41.8%
58.2%
Kasper
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Kasper
Roy
Last 5: Kasper 4-1 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kasper
1
0
Kasper
Roy
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kasper
1
0
Kasper
Roy
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kasper
2
1
Kasper
Roy
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kasper
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (350)
51.9% (547)
-0.8%
Power Play
33.3% (9)
54.1% (37)
-20.8%
Penalty Kill
31.6% (19)
53.3% (92)
-21.7%
On penalty kill, Roy has a +21.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Kasper is 60.3% vs right-shot opponents (126).
Kasper shoots left. Roy is 48.5% vs left-shot opponents (464).
Home / Away
Kasper
Roy
Home
51.1% (184)
54.0% (328)
Away
48.5% (194)
50.6% (348)
By Period
Kasper
Roy
P1
53.8%
53.5%
P2
52.2%
51.6%
P3
42.6%
51.6%
Final 5 min
44.3%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kasper
52.0%▬
52.5%
49.7%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 28, 2025 | 3 | 14:43 | Offensive | Marco Kasper |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 2 | 15:04 | Neutral | Marco Kasper |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 17:14 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 17:06 | Defensive | Marco Kasper |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 08:56 | Neutral | Marco Kasper |