Scouting Report
Nick Schmaltz holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Rossi on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Rossi wins 46.7% vs right-shot opponents — Schmaltz shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rossi 47.1% vs Schmaltz 49.4% (-2.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 66.3%
Defensive zone
Rossi 62.1%
Neutral zone
Rossi 53.8%
Result
Nick Schmaltz favored at 51.3%
48.7%
51.3%
Rossi
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Rossi
Schmaltz
Last 7: Rossi 5-2 Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Rossi
2
1
Rossi
Schmaltz
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Rossi
3
0
Rossi
Schmaltz
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
0
1
Rossi
Schmaltz
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rossi
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (879)
48.1% (268)
-1.6%
Power Play
48.6% (105)
50.5% (91)
-1.9%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (8)
58.8% (17)
-8.8%
On penalty kill, Schmaltz has a +8.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. Rossi is 46.7% vs right-shot opponents (347).
Rossi shoots left. Schmaltz is 48.1% vs left-shot opponents (291).
Home / Away
Rossi
Schmaltz
Home
47.5% (520)
49.0% (206)
Away
46.0% (472)
49.4% (170)
By Period
Rossi
Schmaltz
P1
47.8%
53.6%
P2
44.2%
46.2%
P3
48.7%
50.4%
OT
45.5%
16.7%
Final 5 min
47.6%
39.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rossi
60.0%▲
51.5%
46.8%
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
49.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2025 | 1 | 16:05 | Defensive | Marco Rossi |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 1 | 04:26 | Defensive | Marco Rossi |
| Jan 23, 2025 | 2 | 08:43 | Offensive | Marco Rossi |
| Jan 23, 2025 | 1 | 08:12 | Offensive | Marco Rossi |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 3 | 15:08 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 3 | 14:50 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 1 | 17:10 | Defensive | Marco Rossi |