Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.3% vs 50.2%). Jankowski wins 46.0% vs right-shot opponents — Johnston shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jankowski 50.2% vs Johnston 50.1% (+0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Jankowski 66.3%
Defensive zone
Johnston 68.3%
Neutral zone
Johnston 54.2%
Result
Mark Jankowski favored at 51.2%
51.2%
48.8%
Jankowski
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Jankowski
Johnston
Last 5: Jankowski 1-4 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Jankowski
Johnston
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johnston
0
1
Jankowski
Johnston
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johnston
0
2
Jankowski
Johnston
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jankowski
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
49.3% (134)
50.7% (552)
-1.4%
Power Play
37.5% (8)
61.5% (13)
-24.0%
Penalty Kill
61.9% (21)
43.5% (69)
+18.4%
On power play, Johnston has a +24.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Jankowski is 46.0% vs right-shot opponents (50).
Jankowski shoots left. Johnston is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (498).
Home / Away
Jankowski
Johnston
Home
54.2% (72)
50.3% (342)
Away
47.3% (91)
50.0% (292)
By Period
Jankowski
Johnston
P1
54.2%
54.4%
P2
42.4%
47.2%
P3
55.4%
49.4%
Final 5 min
56.5%
47.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jankowski
58.0%▲
52.0%
50.3%
Johnston
52.0%▲
50.5%
50.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2024 | 3 | 17:40 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 2 | 12:23 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 2 | 07:14 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 2 | 00:12 | Offensive | Mark Jankowski |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 1 | 04:27 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |