Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Kastelic on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Kastelic wins 58.3% vs right-shot opponents — Kupari shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kastelic 55.9% vs Kupari 53.7% (+2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kupari 66.9%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 93.4%
Neutral zone
Kastelic 68.5%
Result
Mark Kastelic favored at 83.4%
83.4%
16.6%
Kastelic
Kupari
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
0
(5 meetings)
5
0
Kastelic
Kupari
Last 5: Kastelic 5-0 Kupari
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
3
0
Kastelic
Kupari
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kastelic
2
0
Kastelic
Kupari
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kastelic
Kupari
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (476)
53.6% (379)
+4.4%
Power Play
75.0% (8)
66.7% (6)
+8.3%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (106)
72.2% (18)
-21.3%
On penalty kill, Kupari has a +21.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kupari shoots right. Kastelic is 58.3% vs right-shot opponents (199).
Kastelic shoots right. Kupari is 44.7% vs right-shot opponents (114).
Home / Away
Kastelic
Kupari
Home
64.9% (265)
55.5% (245)
Away
50.5% (325)
53.2% (158)
By Period
Kastelic
Kupari
P1
58.5%
58.8%
P2
55.6%
47.8%
P3
56.8%
57.4%
Final 5 min
62.6%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
56.9%
Kupari
48.0%▼
51.5%
54.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 27, 2022 | 3 | 00:55 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Nov 27, 2022 | 2 | 02:29 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Nov 27, 2022 | 1 | 17:41 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Nov 27, 2022 | 1 | 15:14 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Nov 27, 2022 | 1 | 12:54 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |