Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Kastelic on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Kastelic wins 58.7% vs right-shot opponents — Kupari shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kastelic 56.5% vs Kupari 50.4% (+6.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kastelic 62.9%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 91.5%
Neutral zone
Kastelic 80.5%
Result
Mark Kastelic favored at 86.8%
86.8%
13.2%
Kastelic
Kupari
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Kastelic
Kupari
Last 7: Kastelic 5-2 Kupari
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
3
1
Kastelic
Kupari
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kastelic
2
1
Kastelic
Kupari
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kastelic
Kupari
Edge
Even Strength
57.0% (1,613)
50.5% (1,275)
+6.5%
Power Play
80.0% (25)
43.5% (23)
+36.5%
Penalty Kill
53.6% (274)
50.4% (139)
+3.2%
On power play, Kastelic has a +36.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kupari shoots right. Kastelic is 58.7% vs right-shot opponents (492).
Kastelic shoots right. Kupari is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (381).
Home / Away
Kastelic
Kupari
Home
58.9% (895)
51.4% (782)
Away
55.1% (1,017)
49.2% (655)
By Period
Kastelic
Kupari
P1
58.5%
49.9%
P2
56.9%
48.5%
P3
55.3%
52.9%
Final 5 min
59.6%
51.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
56.9%
Kupari
48.0%▼
51.5%
50.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2024 | 3 | 09:16 | Neutral | Rasmus Kupari |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 1 | 02:07 | Defensive | Rasmus Kupari |
| Nov 27, 2022 | 3 | 00:55 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Nov 27, 2022 | 2 | 02:29 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Nov 27, 2022 | 1 | 17:41 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Nov 27, 2022 | 1 | 15:14 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Nov 27, 2022 | 1 | 12:54 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |