Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +9.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Kastelic on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Kastelic wins 65.7% vs right-shot opponents — Wright shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kastelic 53.4% vs Wright 45.1% (+9.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Wright 53.4%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 93.2%
Neutral zone
Kastelic 88.6%
Result
Mark Kastelic favored at 90.4%
90.4%
9.6%
Kastelic
Wright
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Kastelic
Wright
Last 5: Kastelic 4-1 Wright
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Kastelic
Wright
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kastelic
3
0
Kastelic
Wright
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kastelic
Wright
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (345)
43.9% (758)
+11.5%
Power Play
50.0% (4)
50.7% (67)
-0.7%
Penalty Kill
35.3% (17)
40.0% (5)
-4.7%
On even strength, Kastelic has a +11.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Wright shoots right. Kastelic is 65.7% vs right-shot opponents (67).
Kastelic shoots right. Wright is 43.4% vs right-shot opponents (226).
Home / Away
Kastelic
Wright
Home
50.6% (162)
46.3% (406)
Away
57.4% (204)
42.7% (424)
By Period
Kastelic
Wright
P1
61.5%
46.8%
P2
52.8%
42.6%
P3
50.0%
44.4%
Final 5 min
46.5%
43.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
54.4%
Wright
44.0%▲
42.5%
44.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 12, 2024 | 3 | 19:30 | Defensive | Shane Wright |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 3 | 18:06 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 3 | 03:21 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 3 | 03:07 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Nov 3, 2024 | 2 | 09:41 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |