Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Kastelic on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Kastelic wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — Nosek shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kastelic 56.5% vs Nosek 53.6% (+3.2%)
H2H factor
Kastelic leads 10-3 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Kastelic 54.3%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 85.8%
Neutral zone
Kastelic 74.1%
Result
Mark Kastelic favored at 72.5%
72.5%
27.5%
Kastelic
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
3
(13 meetings)
10
3
Kastelic
Nosek
Last 10: Kastelic 8-2 Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Kastelic
Nosek
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
4
1
Kastelic
Nosek
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kastelic
4
0
Kastelic
Nosek
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kastelic
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
57.0% (1,613)
54.9% (2,674)
+2.1%
Power Play
80.0% (25)
44.7% (47)
+35.3%
Penalty Kill
53.6% (274)
47.4% (424)
+6.2%
On power play, Kastelic has a +35.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. Kastelic is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,420).
Kastelic shoots right. Nosek is 52.4% vs right-shot opponents (1,203).
Home / Away
Kastelic
Nosek
Home
58.9% (895)
52.7% (1,631)
Away
55.1% (1,017)
54.8% (1,514)
By Period
Kastelic
Nosek
P1
58.5%
52.3%
P2
56.9%
54.0%
P3
55.3%
54.6%
OT
53.8%
75.0%
Final 5 min
59.6%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
56.9%
Nosek
46.0%▼
49.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2024 | 3 | 15:27 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 3 | 07:01 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 3 | 04:19 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 2 | 18:38 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 2 | 18:31 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 2 | 02:39 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 1 | 12:22 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 2 | 12:09 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 2 | 08:11 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Feb 12, 2022 | 3 | 10:58 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Feb 12, 2022 | 2 | 12:33 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Feb 12, 2022 | 1 | 01:56 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |