Scouting Report
Tomas Nosek holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Kastelic on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Kastelic wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Nosek shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kastelic 55.9% vs Nosek 58.0% (-2.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kastelic 62.1%
Defensive zone
Nosek 55.5%
Neutral zone
Nosek 59.8%
Result
Tomas Nosek favored at 59.8%
40.2%
59.8%
Kastelic
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
0
(3 meetings)
3
0
Kastelic
Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kastelic
3
0
Kastelic
Nosek
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kastelic
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (476)
59.7% (469)
-1.7%
Power Play
75.0% (8)
100.0% (4)
-25.0%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (106)
56.5% (124)
-5.6%
On power play, Nosek has a +25.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. Kastelic is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (391).
Kastelic shoots right. Nosek is 54.5% vs right-shot opponents (275).
Home / Away
Kastelic
Nosek
Home
64.9% (265)
59.0% (295)
Away
50.5% (325)
59.6% (302)
By Period
Kastelic
Nosek
P1
58.5%
56.3%
P2
55.6%
61.9%
P3
56.8%
59.2%
Final 5 min
62.6%
61.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
56.9%
Nosek
46.0%▼
49.0%
59.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2022 | 2 | 12:09 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 2 | 08:11 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |