Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +9.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Evans wins 60.0% vs right-shot opponents — Scheifele shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 55.4% vs Scheifele 47.0% (+9.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Scheifele 64.8%
Defensive zone
Evans 95.2%
Neutral zone
Evans 80.1%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 67.3%
67.3%
32.7%
Evans
Scheifele
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Evans
Scheifele
Last 7: Evans 5-2 Scheifele
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Scheifele
1
2
Evans
Scheifele
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
3
0
Evans
Scheifele
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Evans
1
0
Evans
Scheifele
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Scheifele
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (477)
46.3% (864)
+9.9%
Power Play
70.0% (10)
47.9% (169)
+22.1%
Penalty Kill
55.4% (204)
50.0% (54)
+5.4%
On power play, Evans has a +22.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Scheifele shoots right. Evans is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (175).
Evans shoots right. Scheifele is 42.3% vs right-shot opponents (234).
Home / Away
Evans
Scheifele
Home
55.3% (374)
46.2% (571)
Away
57.1% (317)
47.3% (516)
By Period
Evans
Scheifele
P1
58.5%
51.8%
P2
55.7%
45.5%
P3
53.9%
43.6%
OT
66.7%
27.3%
Final 5 min
54.3%
47.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
56.2%
Scheifele
52.0%▲
50.0%
46.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2026 | 3 | 12:35 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 3 | 02:32 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 2 | 04:42 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 14:34 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 3 | 02:34 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 3 | 01:54 | Defensive | Jake Evans |